Harm to themselves
Sanctions against Russian officials only weaken the position of the West and accelerate recovery of the Russian elite
U.S. sanctions impress mixture of belligerence and incompetence.
(the article posted in http://www.vz.ru/politics/2014/3/17/677553.html and translated through Google translate. Hope that the general idea is understandable. T.K.)
In response to the holding of a referendum in the Crimea, the EU imposed sanctions against Russia "second tier" : freezing of financial assets and a visa ban on entry into the EU for those Russian officials, which the West calls " responsible for the annexation of the Crimea ." Although initially there were leaks that the EU discussed the list, which were five members of the Security Council of Russia : Ivanov, Patruhev , Shoigu Bortnikov Matvienko - as well as vice-premier Rogozin, presidential advisers, deputies and heads of major state-owned corporations, in the final version included a total of 13 people, with one of the top officials there did not appear. 10 people - the State Duma and the Federation Council , and three more - the Russian military, including the Black Sea Fleet .
" It is unlikely that the West really believe that sanctions against the country's leaders are able to make it more compliant , rather it is about trying to save face in front of public opinion"
A higher level of affected U.S. sanctions - Barack Obama signed a decree that prohibited entry into the United States and seize assets placed there seven Russian officials and deputies : the Federation Council Speaker Valentina Matviyenko , Deputy Prime Minister Dmitry Rogozin , presidential adviser Sergei Glazyev , Assistant President Vladislav Surkov , State Duma deputies and Helena Mizulina, Leonid Slutsky, Senator Andrew Klishas .
If the format of the European list of just crying about how the Europeans do not want to quarrel with Russia, the U.S. shows a strange mixture of militant attitude and incompetence (for it is difficult to imagine that Obama specifically substituted ) . What, for example, there does Elena Mizulina , which has no relation to the events in the Crimea and Ukraine ? It is clear that the United States decided in such a way to strike back at her for her active role in making laws prohibiting propaganda of homosexuality to minors and anti- pedophile lobby, but why do it so clearly? It is clear that the defendants list no property or accounts in the United States . Newcomers to the list of helpers have found a reason to laugh at just the United States and Obama personally . So, Dmitry Rogozin, has already responded to the sanctions , writing in his "Twitter" : "Comrade . Obama , but what about those who do not have any accounts or property abroad? Or you have not thought about it ? "
"Such a high appreciation of my work by the U.S. government is absolutely justified ," - said in jest and Klishas .
Special surprise expressed Elena Mizulina , which does not have any relation to the Ukrainian and Crimean events , and in the context of relations with the United States was engaged only problem propaganda of homosexuality among children and foreign adoption .
"The decision is puzzling, because no bills, no estate neither I nor my family members outside the Russian Federation is not ... Why me included ? I think for the same reason as the other colleagues who spoke at meetings of the State Duma or the Federation Council , "- said Mizulina .
In any case, even the most flimsy and empty discriminatory actions against state officials - is primarily not insult them personally , and the country they represent. Thus, the West does everything just for the deterioration of our relations, and for demonstrative pressure on Russia. Ban on entry - it translating from diplomatic to human, emphatic rejection of acquaintance and communication : we believe you unworthy of us and did not want to see you in our countries. Moreover, according to the decree Obama banned U.S. citizens to enter into business relationships with those from the blacklist. Given that sanctions touched SF speaker Valentina Matvienko, it is clear that it is not a joint business Russian and U.S. senators, and that are now becoming almost impossible negotiations between the upper chambers of the parliaments of the two countries.
Naturally, this step provoked symmetrical reaction - Russia announce retaliatory restrictions for Europeans and Americans. Of course, the search for options to resolve the Ukrainian crisis will not stop, but Vladimir Putin , speaking on the phone with Barack Obama, will come from the fact that his advisers and the head of the Federation Council denied entry to the United States, that is America itself is fenced off from Russia . Valentina Matvienko - not only the third man in the Russian ranking, but also a permanent member of the Security Council and the Security Council members are not tourists, and senior Russian leaders. Trip to Washington they need to the same extent as U.S. officials and senators visit to Moscow - to maintain the relationship between the two countries and resolve international issues .
Refusing contacts with Russia, the West harms not us, but to himself . After all, Russia has made it clear that the protection of national interests - and in Ukraine as it is about the safety of Russia and Russian population of the south-east - will come from their own ideas about the necessity of any move , given the interests of the West ( which carries primary responsibility for the current crisis ) only to the extent that the West is ready to take our interests.
Turning to the language of threats and sanctions , the U.S. and EU only worsen their positions and lose time. If the decision to return the situation in Ukraine in a constitutional course would be taken by them in the first days after the collapse of the agreements of February 21, the Crimea would remain part of Ukraine. Now, continuing to threaten Russia , the West is at stake the very existence of Ukraine - however, for him it is the only card in the geopolitical game against Russia.
Let's try to understand the logic of the West. What is the general meaning of the introduction of personal sanctions ? Making the Russian leadership to change its position ? But even before the very detached from reality politicians would be reached : Russia will not abandon to counteract attempts to lead Ukraine to the West. Unlikely in the West really believe that sanctions against the country's leaders are able to make it more compliant - rather, it is about trying to save face in front of public opinion . Especially European - say, if we can not stop the Russian military means and, frankly , do not want to tear the economic ties that still need to give some answer , because we ourselves Screw public opinion against Moscow. Another thing is that anti-Russian campaign in Europe has failed - many Europeans do not see the actions of Russia is no threat to European security.
In addition, the U.S. and EU for too long believed that told them about our liberal Russian analysts and opposition - say , the entire Russian elite tied to the West , we all live there children and families have property and bank accounts. Pro-Western forces in Russia was beneficial to maintain this myth (ie, what was true in the past) - they are using it at the same time the Russian government and discredited in the eyes of the people, and created from their Western customers the illusion that Russia is still even not on a very short , but a leash. It's amazing how you can not ignore the fact that in the past two years , Vladimir Putin did everything to minimize the impact of that part of the elite, which is really a variety of threads tied to the West. Prooligarhicheskaya part of the bureaucracy , though not entirely supplanted , but essentially surrendered their positions and that is called , has become silent . The nationalization of the elite is far from over , moreover, in the ideological and moral aspects of major changes yet to come, but there is no doubt as to the independence of the country's leadership , the people who sit in the current analogue Politburo - the Security Council. Search their accounts in the West is useless, and if lower-ranking officials and they are found, Moscow has already said it will only be grateful for the help in identifying those who have violated Russian laws.
Indeed, the West just could not think of a better gift to Putin (not counting, of course , the Crimea ) than help in such an important matter for Russia , as the cleaning process and the nationalization of the elite. In addition, sanctions against senior officials raise their personal rating in Russia - even brainwashed by propaganda , people see that Putin's supporters defend national interests and not their own pockets . Reformatting the elite will be accelerated, and its core statist get huge credibility of their own people for the implementation of large-scale reforms , both economic and social , which largely inhibited just because of "dual power" , ie, the coexistence in the top management of statists and cosmopolitans .
If an agreement on Ukraine and will not be achieved , and the West will continue to confront , then after a while the U.S. can impose economic sanctions and require the same from Europe. So far, Europeans claim that the third level of sanctions - economic - will be adopted in the event that Russia will introduce its military to Ukraine. Which, incidentally , means that the EU has almost resigned to entering the Crimea to Russia .
EU does not want to complicate economic ties with Russia - their relationship with us is much deeper than the Americans . Damage in the event of termination or reduction will be for Europe even more than for us , that is, in fact, they punish themselves. Reorientation of our energy exports to the east takes not such a great time , and she would be in Europe even more dependent on the United States. Not just energy , and geopolitical , which, since the end of World War II, and so is at a level that can not call many countries in Europe are truly sovereign .
European elites, not to mention ordinary Europeans, are not eager to continue to remain on manual control at the Anglo-Saxons. Moreover, in recent years they sought greater autonomy - and now , pushing them to sanctions against Russia and tying the United States, they are deprived of a chance to release. Realizing all this , Germans, Italians, French and others will hang back until the last , so that the possibility of serious economic sanctions yet be regarded as rather hypothetical .
And that's not to mention the fact that the sanctions will not lead to the desired result the West - Change the position of Russia in Ukraine . And even more so with the help of them it is impossible to isolate Russia and bring down our economy. Today, the economic blockade of Russia just not feasible.
In the 20 years the West has tried to block Russia not recognizing Soviet power and refusing to trade with us . And while the country was in far worse economic position than they are now - and even then no isolation did not work . USSR still find ways to trade with the West (and this was on the initiative of individual countries and Western companies ), and in the 30 years to industrialize , relying primarily on their own resources and means (though using some Western technology ) . Then our integration into the global economy has been significantly less than it is now , but all the finance and technology were only within the boundaries of the Western world.
In today's world the Atlantic civilization does not control all the major markets and financial resources , so that Russia will have enough room to maneuver and replacement partners. Moreover, together with China and other interested powers , we will accelerate the process of decline " of the dollar era" , a fundamental restructuring of the global financial system , the urgent need for all countries which believe , anxiously waiting for the collapse of the dollar pyramid .
Equally beneficial will be important and restrictions on exports to Russia from Europe if it did solve our "partners" . Import substitution policy , the need for which so long talked independent ideology of globalization on American economists finally become uncontested .
Sanctions , of course, double-edged sword , but for Russia, they may well become the case , which they say " a blessing in disguise ."